Wrangling over health reform has eclipsed some recent events that point toward the likely avenues Congressional Democrats will take for economic stimulus when both houses reconvene after the New Year. However, health care negotiations could linger in conference through January, delaying discussion of new stimulus until February. This would allow President Obama to lay out his goals for a new jobs-oriented stimulus in his State of the Union address in late January or early February.

In a December 8th speech at the Brookings Institution, Obama provided early insights into his goals for this stimulus, including eliminating capital gains taxes for small businesses, non-specific infrastructure spending, residential "green" retrofitting, and a variety of emergency relief to seniors and the unemployed.

12/16: The House passed a $154 billion "Jobs for Main Street Act" (H.R. 2847) that is intended to redeploy unused funds from bank bailouts to keep a lid on unemployment, which increased at a rate not anticipated by the initial $787 billion stimulus package. This bill truly piggy-backs on the earlier stimulus program, inserting additional funds into highways, an "Education Jobs Fund," school renovations, public housing and various benefits extensions.

12/24: The Senate passed a $290 billion increase in the nation's debt limit to $12.4 trillion. (The House passed similar legislation the week prior.) This will allow the federal government to borrow money through February. Congressional Democrats had originally sought an increase that would cover borrowing for all of 2010.

INPUT's Take

• I'll declare the debate over health care refom legislation to be over when the President signs a bill and not one second before. We won't know until next week (at the earliest) how much trouble Speaker Pelosi will encounter in trying to line up enough of the pro-public-option members in her chamber to support the Senate's public-option-free version of reform. It's not inconceivable that this could take weeks and maybe even scuttle reform altogether.
• So far, the Democrats--Obama included--are not proposing any radical new visions as part of their jobs stimulus. They are simply proposing a supplement to the American Recovery & Reinvestment Act of 2009. (Call it "Stimulus, Jr.") However, if Congressional Republicans have been willing to mount an endless rear-guard action on health care reform, it will come as no surprise if they do the same on additional stimulus spending. (And we haven't even begun the debate on climate change legislation!) Exhaustion could easily result in a Congressional stalemate on additional stimulus.
• As it now stands, government IT vendors should make plans for 2010 that depend in any way on the timing or amount of any jobs stimulus finding its way into federal or state and local agency coffers.