What is the average federal win rate? Sometimes the question is posed as "What is the win rate for recompetes?" or "What is the average win rate for task orders?".

More demand for win rate benchmarks

We are hearing these questions more and more from our Members. Three years ago we got questions about win rates once a month, and today we are asked the question almost every day.

Not only is the frequency changing, but also who is asking. A few years ago the companies interested in win rate statistics were generally larger integrators managing large bid portfolios and big bid and proposal (B&P) budgets. Now the question comes from companies of all sizes - some well below the $50 million mark, both subcontractors and primes, product and services vendors, both new to market and entrenched players.

Why the increased demand for win rate statistics? Take your pick: more competitive market, tighter budgets, more sophisticated vendors. These factors will put more demand on more productive B&P dollars.

30% Win Rate: Industry average

In FY07, competed federal technology spending with more than one bidder had an average win rate of 30%. An average win rate of about 1/3 makes mathematical common sense given a minimum three vendors are needed for a competitive bid and the average number of bidders for competitive competitions approaches three.

70% Win Rate: Recompetes and task orders

The average win rate in FY07 for all spending regardless of the type of work or number of bidders was 65%. The higher average includes a lot of spending with only one bidder (email me at ahiggs at input dot com if you would like the list of contracts with only one bidder). Anecdotal feedback from business development directors say that pure new business is acceptable with a 30% win rate, and the win rate for recompetes and some task orders should be around 70%.

10% Win rate: Something is definitely wrong; how to fix it

In a conversation last year with a recently installed VP of Sales and Marketing at one mid-sized integrator, I heard a common success story. The VP told me the company averaged an "absurd" 7% win rate until several months prior when they changed their bid practices and now achieved win rates in the mid-30s. The change in bid practices included more effective decision gates in the proposal process to decrease the instances of "we just have to bid" and a final gate just before proposal submission where the predicted win rate had to be at least 50% or it was a no-bid.

B&P Spending Rule of Thumb

Best practices dictate that B&P spending should average 1% to 3% of expected contract value. Like the 1% to 3% rule of thumb for B&P spend, the average federal win rate varies depending on who you talk to and what type of bids. Under a win rate of 15% and a vendor is not spending its B&P money wisely and has a capture process to fix, or does not have competitive solutions. Company average of 35% to 50% has been said to be optimal. Over 66% and maybe the company is bidding too conservatively, operating in a unique market, or is at the top of the game.