Yesterday the House passed by 4 votes the Senate Conference Resolution (S. Con. Res. 70), a concurrent resolution on the FY09 Federal budget which passed in the Senate on Wednesday. While some news reports indicate that "lawmakers have managed to adopt a budget in an election year," we would remind our readers that this legislation is a non-binding resolution that only sets the stage for full appropriations work in House and Senate sub-committees. While we applaud Congress' efforts to remove uncertainty in Federal spending, we're still very early in the process. Budget resolutions are only "proposals" for the Congressional Appropriations Committees to consider as they work through the appropriations process.

According to a Senate Budget Committee press release, the Senate's plan "balances the budget; makes needed investments in energy, education, and infrastructure; and cuts taxes on the middle class." The resolution assumes $1.2 trillion more in taxes over five years (by allowing 2001 and 2003 tax relief to expire), a one-year "patch" on the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), and provides for discretionary budget authority of $1.088 trillion (which includes $70 billion for the war).

Most of the proposed spending levels are equivalent to or higher than the President's request. The graph below provides the Senate-approved budget figures, compared to the FY2009 request and FY2008 resolution (significant areas of difference are highlighted in red).

Overall, there is only about a 1% difference between the President's request and what the Senate is proposing. Is this a sign that there may actually be a budget passed before the new administration? Probably not. Although we have an approved budget resolution, some appropriations committee leaders have already said that they plan on waiting for a new administration before finishing the FY09 bills given President Bush's threats to veto bills that exceed his request.

If committee leaders allow the budget to languish in committee, the new administration faces a budgetary overload coming into office:

The prospect of dodging the Continuing Resolution bullet is not looking so good. As House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey (D-WI) reportedly said to Jerry Lewis, the ranking Republican on the committee, he's going to "forget about having '09 bills go forward."